SWODY1
SPC AC 040042
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CST WED FEB 03 2010
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LWR RIO GRANDE VLY/SRN PLAINS AND WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT RELATIVELY WEAK/UNFOCUSED MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATE
DESTABILIZATION ABOVE WEAK ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION OVERNIGHT.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. AND MEXICAN PLATEAU SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MEXICO...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BUT EVEN THIS POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH
TO NEAR NEGLIGIBLE LEVELS BY 02-03Z...WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE OFFSHORE... HOWEVER.
...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LOWER/MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DIURNAL SURFACE COOLING SHOULD ALSO END WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY 02-03Z...IF NOT
BEFORE.
..KERR.. 02/04/2010
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