DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041235
SWODY1
SPC AC 041234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 AM CST THU FEB 04 2010

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED TROUGH COMPLEX NOW CROSSING THE
RCKYS WILL CONTINUE E TO THE LWR MS VLY/NWRN GULF THIS PERIOD AS
BROAD UPSTREAM TROUGH EDGES E ACROSS THE E PACIFIC. AT LWR
LVLS...WEAK SFC LOW NOW FORMING OVER THE NWRN GULF MAY STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF CST EARLY FRI. AT THE
SAME TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MAINTAIN EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGE ALONG AND JUST OFF THE E CST.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST...
ELEVATED WAA WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN GULF AND CNTRL GULF CST
TODAY/TONIGHT AS SFC WAVE TRACKS TOWARD REGION. THE WAVE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY ENE MOTION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN CHIHUAHUA.
APPROACH OF THE LATTER DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE DEEP UVV OVER THE N
CNTRL GULF...AND PW WILL INCREASE TO AOA 1.75 INCHES. BUT POSITIVE
TILT OF TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK.
COUPLED WITH EXISTING LOW LVL CP AIR OVER REGION...PROSPECTS FOR
OVERLAND SFC-BASED TSTMS LOOK LOW. WDLY SCTD ELEVATED STORMS MAY
AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST... ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.

...E TX/ARKLATEX...
SATELLITE DATA AND MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST THAT E TX REGION WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSES COMPRISING THE RCKYS TROUGH
AS THE LATTER SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD. AS A RESULT... DCVA SHOULD
REMAIN COMPARATIVELY WEAK. SUSTAINED WAA AND MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A CONTINUATION OF CURRENT
SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER REGION. BUT ASSOCIATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK...AND UVV PROBABLY WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT OVER MOST
OF THE AREA TO OVERCOME ELEVATED CIN. THUS...LIKELIHOOD FOR 10%
TSTM COVERAGE LOOKS LOW.

...NRN CA AND SRN ORE CST...
SCTD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE PRESENT WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
...NOW NEARING 130W...OF BROADER E PACIFIC UPR LOW. ISOLD THUNDER
MAY ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE AS IT GLANCES THE NRN CA CST THIS EVE.

..CORFIDI.. 02/04/2010

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