SWODY2
SPC AC 110652
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A LARGE-SCALE/LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER ERN NOAM...A SRN
STREAM PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE SERN
U.S./GULF OF MEXICO. FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EVIDENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE NAM IS SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THIS
FEATURE...BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS THE KEYS AND FAR S FL AFTER DARK.
THE GFS TRACK WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST LOW-END SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITH FAVORABLE WIND FIELD PARTIALLY OFFSETTING WHAT
SHOULD REMAIN VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD BE BASICALLY NIL ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN THE NAM SCENARIO.
ATTM...UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED ABOVE PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY
SEVERE PROBABILITY. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THAT A MORE NAM-LIKE SCENARIO IS THE MORE LIKELY
OUTCOME...THE INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD BE
REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..GOSS.. 02/11/2010
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