Tuesday, February 23, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230657
SWODY2
SPC AC 230656

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2010

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN INTO DAY 2 ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES...WITH
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF
AND FL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE TX GULF COAST/LOWER MS
VALLEY AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH THE
BASE OF A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES. WITHIN
THIS UPPER TROUGH...A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD FROM THE
WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SSWWD
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NC/SC COAST AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
TO NEAR MLB AND THEN OFF THE SWRN FL COAST INTO THE SERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SURGE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING ERN U.S. TROUGH SHIFTING EWD.

...S FL...
SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS S FL LATE DAY 1 INTO EARLY
DAY 2 WILL ALLOW MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN MID-UPPER 60S/ TO
RETURN NWD ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
MID LEVEL INVERSION LOCATED AOA 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFTS
FROM REACHING COLD EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION. GREATEST TSTM POTENTIAL...THOUGH STILL LOW...SHOULD BE
LOCATED ACROSS SERN FL WHERE SOME SURFACE HEATING AND HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT GREATER INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 02/23/2010

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