SWODY3
SPC AC 250830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST THU FEB 25 2010
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...S FL...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL PROCEED EWD ACROSS FL DURING DAY 3.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS FL /ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER/...THEY AGREE THAT THE
TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF FL BY 12Z SUNDAY. DESPITE THESE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...A DRY/STABLE AIR MASS RESIDING OVER FL DURING DAY 1
AND 2 AND MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO FAR S FL ON SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...AT BEST...AS STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD ACROSS NRN FL.
ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING ACROSS S FL ATTENDANT TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW/TRAILING FRONT ACROSS S FL.
WEAK INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL LACK OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF A LOW
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...GIVEN 40-50 KT W/SWLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER S FL CONCURRENT WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE.
...SWRN STATES...
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO THE SRN EXTENT
OF THE DEEP WRN TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE SWRN STATES SATURDAY
SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE AND PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 02/25/2010
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