SWODY3
SPC AC 270729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...GULF COAST STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER TX AND NRN MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING
JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ON THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TX
COAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP CONVECTION NEWD ALONG THE COAST
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE EXIT
REGION OF A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE
UPPER TX AND LA COASTS...THE MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION MOVING EWD INTO
THE LOWER MS DELTA REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AGAIN...A
WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE NRN GULF
OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS
INCREASE SFC-DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S F ACROSS FAR SERN LA AND
DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MS DELTA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
..BROYLES.. 02/27/2010
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