SWOD48
SPC AC 030912
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CST WED FEB 03 2010
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ADVECT A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS
WELL SOUTH INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SRN SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. THEREAFTER...SPLIT-FLOW REGIME WILL OFFER LOW
PREDICTABILITY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MODEST
BUCKLING OF THE UPR FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK...PROBABLY NOT TO THE DEGREE SUGGESTED
BY THE 00Z GFS. RATHER...A FLATTER SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH A MINOR SRN-STREAM IMPULSE EJECTING ENE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MID-SOUTH IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THIS SOLUTION AND ONLY A MARGINALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS
RETURNING NWD...A SVR TSTM EPISODE IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY 11 FEB.
..RACY.. 02/03/2010
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