SWOD48
SPC AC 050949
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2010
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY THE ERN CONUS...AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE START OF DAY 7 /THU FEB 11/.
A SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SHIFT
EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THAT GULF MOISTURE MODIFICATION WILL
REMAIN INCOMPLETE -- AND ITS RETURN LIMITED -- AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
SYSTEM. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT APPARENT.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND LITTLE LIKELIHOOD FOR
ONSHORE AIRMASS IMPROVEMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER SYSTEM
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 02/05/2010
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