SWOD48
SPC AC 200947
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2010
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DESPITE MAINTAINING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY DAYS 4-5 /TUE FEB 23-WED FEB 24/.
THESE DIFFERENCES AFFECT THE TIMING AND OVERALL AMPLIFICATION OF A
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM AZ/NM AT 12Z TUE
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES BY DAY 6 /THU FEB 25/. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...EVEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH DEPICTED BY THE GFS
AFFECTING THE GULF COAST STATES ON DAY 5 SHOULD NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT.
ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BEYOND DAY 6...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF COAST STATES ON DAYS 7-8 /FRI FEB 26-SAT FEB 27/...THE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT.
..PETERS.. 02/20/2010
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