SWOD48
SPC AC 241001
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CST WED FEB 24 2010
VALID 271200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL
TO OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST DURING DAY 4 /SAT FEB 27/. HOWEVER...
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ACROSS FL ON SATURDAY... EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY THE FAR SRN TIP INCLUDING THE KEYS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ON DAY 5 /SUN MAR 28/...THE SRN EXTENT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WRN STATES ON DAY 3 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT TSTMS
WITH SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS AND MREF ALL SUGGEST A THREAT FOR TSTMS AFFECTING
FL PENINSULA LATE DAY 6 /MON NIGHT-MAR 01/ INTO EARLY DAY 7 /TUE
MORNING-MAR 02/...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUALITY OF WARM
SECTOR MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AREA.
..PETERS.. 02/24/2010
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