SWOD48
SPC AC 270958
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2010
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT EARLY THIS
UPCOMING WEEK...MOVING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS DEVELOP A
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS FL
TUESDAY MORNING/DAY 4. INITIALLY...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION WOULD BE IN THE NCNTRL PART OF FL AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT SWD DURING
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SRN PART OF THE PENINSULA.
THE MAIN PROBLEM TUESDAY MORNING IS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD BE WEAK AND NOT PHASED WELL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK MOISTURE
RETURN...DESTABILIZATION THAT DOES OCCUR TUESDAY MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW WOULD BE
BRIEF DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE PASSING SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM FL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY ACROSS FL. BEYOND DAY
4...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT DEVELOPING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE CNTRL U.S. BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS DURING THE MID-WEEK
TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE SRN PLAINS UNTIL LATE ON SATURDAY/DAY 8. FOR THIS
REASON...A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
CONUS LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 02/27/2010
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