Tuesday, February 9, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0114

ACUS11 KWNS 100005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100004
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-100400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NJ...SERN PA...NRN/CENTRAL DE...ERN MD...NERN
VA AND THE DC METRO AREA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 100004Z - 100400Z

PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NERN
VA/DC METRO AREA ACROSS NERN MD AND SERN PA...WHILE A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z FROM ERN
MD/NRN DE INTO SRN NJ.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS RAPIDLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AT 00Z...WITH A BROAD SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION
ARE NOTED IN REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY OVER WRN VA...WHICH MAY
PROGRESS INTO NRN-NERN MD AND SERN PA WITH TIME...WHILE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS ERN MD/DE AND SRN NJ THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 23Z SUGGEST THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
ACROSS SRN NJ/DE/ERN MD...BUT WET BULB COOLING AND MOISTENING WILL
LIKELY TAKE PLACE AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUB FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. RUC FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT STRONG SLY
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT A WARM NOSE TOWARD THE DC
METRO AREA E-NEWD ACROSS ERN MD/DE AND SRN NJ NEAR OR AFTER
03Z...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
/WITH RATES UP TO 0.05 IN PER HR/. MEANWHILE...BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF THE DC METRO AREA AND ACROSS NERN MD INTO SERN
PA. HOWEVER...DUE TO ONLY MODEST ASCENT THROUGH 06Z...AS WELL AS
ADVANCING DRY AIR TOWARD THE AREA...SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNDER 1 IN/HR.

..GARNER.. 02/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40247540 40077466 39467458 38667618 38157742 38247774
38767776 39707664 40247540

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