SWODY1
SPC AC 081941
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CST MON MAR 08 2010
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN TX PNHDL...WRN
OK SEWD INTO NCNTRL TX...
CORRECTED FOR TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC
CHANGES TO PREV OUTLOOK:
1/ EXPAND SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL SE INTO NCNTRL TX
2/ NARROW THE NW PART OF SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
...ERN TX PNHDL...WRN OK AND NCNTRL TX...
LINE OF TSTMS TRANSLATING NEWD AT 40 KTS WILL REACH SCNTRL OK AND
THE DFW METROPLEX BY 21-22Z. SFC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORMS WILL BE EXITING THE PRIMARY LOW-LVL THETA-E AXIS INTO A
COOLER SFC ENVIRONMENT WITH TIME. SOME RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE
ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE LINE IN NCNTRL TX WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF STG STORMS INTO THE DFW
METROPLEX. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
IN WAKE OF THE STORMS...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM ALONG
THE BENT BACK PORTION OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE ERN TX AND OK
PNHDLS. IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN OCCUR SWD
INTO WRN OK. ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF MINIMAL THERMAL BUOYANCY. YET...COOLER TEMPERATURE PROFILES
INVOF THE UPR LOW MAY FOSTER MARGINALLY SVR HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AT THIS POINT...THE SVR THREAT OVER THE TX PNHDL
INTO NWRN OK/SWRN KS APPEARS TO BE MORE ISOLD THAN AT POINTS FARTHER
TO THE S AND SE.
..RACY.. 03/08/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST MON MAR 08 2010/
...SRN PLAINS...
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH INTO CA...UPPER LOW NRN NM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING NEWD INTO CENTRAL KS BY 12Z TUE. EXAMINING MORNING
SOUNDINGS SAMPLING THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING NM TROUGH AND MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH...AIR MASS IS
BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CURRENTLY FROM TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK SWD
TO SWRN TX WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP NEWD THRU THE AFTERNOON. WITH
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...STORMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE RAPID CHANGES
TAKING PLACE AT MID LEVELS AS COOLING SPREADS EWD ACROSS TX
PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MUCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG WHICH COUPLED WITH THE
COLD/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT HAIL IN THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.
IN ADDITION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE STORM INITIATION WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN OK INTO NWRN TX JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE RAPID MID LEVEL DRYING THAT WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS
THE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WARRANTED GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.
ANY SURFACE BASED STORM THAT INITIATES DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD BE
A LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50-60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX.
THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED SWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO NWRN
TX...PRIMARILY FOR THE HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING
WINDS.
...NRN SACRAMENTO VLY...
A FEW TSTMS...ONE OR TWO POSSIBLY WITH SMALL HAIL...MAY FORM OVER
THE NRN SACRAMENTO VLY THIS AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW.
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