SWODY1
SPC AC 010538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED/YET PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TIED TO A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING FROM WEST TX EARLY TODAY TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY EARLY TUESDAY.
...SOUTHERN LA...
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY IN TANDEM WITH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING EAST TX/ARKLATEX
VICINITY AND THE ADJACENT GULF COAST REGION. WHILE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHERN LA COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TOWARD
THE GULF COAST REGION...MOISTURE QUALITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
INLAND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY RECENT GULF FROPA AND MAINLY OFFSHORE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. ACCORDINGLY...POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION APPEARS QUITE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA...ALTHOUGH A LIMITED DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN LA GIVEN AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED MUCAPE TO AROUND
500 J/KG.
...WEST COAST OF FL LATE TONIGHT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INLAND WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT ATTENDANT TO
THE GULF COAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST
OF THE FL PENINSULA PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
00Z GFS SOLUTION A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN AS COMPARED TO 00Z NAM/12Z
ECMWF GUIDANCE. WHILE LOW LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
APPRECIABLY STRENGTHEN VIA THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT PRIOR TO
12Z TUESDAY APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY LOW AT THIS TIME TO PRECLUDE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES FOR THE WEST COAST OF FL.
..GUYER/SMITH.. 03/01/2010
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