Monday, March 8, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080556
SWODY1
SPC AC 080554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST SUN MAR 07 2010

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH
WILL PERSIST...DESPITE BEING PRESSED EWD WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LOW
SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE SWRN U.S. TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN THE
MEAN TIME...ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS
THE W COAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN CO/WRN KS/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW EJECTS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL FORECAST TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS/SWRN KS INTO WRN N TX...
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS OK/KS AND
VICINITY THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON FARTHER W...AS A DRY SLOT SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY MODEST LOW-TOPPED INSTABILITY
WILL EVOLVE GIVEN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH
COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...THIS MAY SUPPORT A
FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS WITH STRONGER CELLS NEAR PEAK HEATING.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN/SERN TX...
SOME DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...AS LOW 60S DEWPOINTS COMBINE WITH SOME
AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH THIS REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY S OF THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS CENTRAL TX.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON
INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY REGION.
HOWEVER...MODEST INSTABILITY AND LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE
AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ATTM THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK.

..GOSS/GARNER.. 03/08/2010

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