SWODY1
SPC AC 171221
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE EWD
ACROSS S-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROUGH. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING S-SW FROM THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
SECOND UPPER WAVE TRAILING SW FROM THE CANADIAN TROUGH ENTERING THE
PAC NW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS FL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN PROGRESS EWD
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...FOCUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
...NRN GREAT BASIN INTO NRN SIERRA NEVADA RANGE...
WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA RANGE...DUE TO
FORCING ACCOMPANYING NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER CANADA REMAINING WELL N
OF THE REGION...AND WEAK WLY MID LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN MARGINAL
ASCENT ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SIERRA/S.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING/LOCAL TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL YIELD SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE...WHICH WILL FAVOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS /MAINLY
04-12Z/...A STRONGER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW.
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE COMBINED
WITH LINGERING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MUCAPE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION MAY RESULT IN
THE OCCURRENCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN ORE AND SWRN ID.
..GARNER/EVANS.. 03/17/2010
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