SWODY1
SPC AC 231934
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010
VALID 232000Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z UPDATE...FOUR CORNERS STATES...
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS REMAINED
WEAK TO THIS POINT...AND CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPEAR ANY STRONGER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WITH THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF THE WEAKENING
BAJA TROUGH LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO NOW SEEMS LESS THAN THE MINIMUM 10%
PROBABILITY THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES MAY NOT BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO...BUT
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
OF A DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE/ EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..KERR.. 03/23/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE SRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WEAKENS AND MOVES EWD FROM BAJA CA TO SONORA. A
COMBINATION OF COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS /NEAR OR BELOW -20 DEG C AT
H5/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING GREAT BASIN TROUGH AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY YIELD A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE--SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CO EXTENDING SWWD TO THE MOGOLLON RIM.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED FROM S-CNTRL KS
WWD TO THE ROCKIES...WITH A LEE CYCLONE INVOF NWRN OK. THIS...ALONG
WITH WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT WILL
SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCI THAT MAY LEAD TO A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING
AROUND DAYBREAK OVER NRN OK/S-CNTRL KS.
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