Monday, March 15, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151621
SWODY1
SPC AC 151619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT MON MAR 15 2010

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW OVER SW NM WILL MOVE SEWD OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A BELT OF FOCUSED ASCENT E OF THE LOW
CENTER HAS BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER W CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING /PER 12Z MAF SOUNDING
WITH MUCAPE OF 700 J/KG BASED 700-800 MB/. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
HOWEVER...DRIER/COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR IS SPREADING SWWD TOWARD S
CENTRAL TX...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS UNLIKELY TO INCREASE MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SMALL AREA WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ALLOW SOME
SURFACE NEAR AND W-S OF SAT. GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL CAP NOTED IN THE
12Z DRT SOUNDING AND THE OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/FLOW
CHANGES...IT APPEARS THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
REMAIN ELEVATED AND OF MARGINAL INTENSITY...SUCH THAT DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL AOA 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE UNLIKELY.

..THOMPSON/STOPPKOTTE.. 03/15/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: