SWODY1
SPC AC 211938
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK IS TO MOVE THE THUNDER LINE...5
% WIND PROBABILITY LINE AND 2 % TORNADO PROBABILITY LINE SEWD ACROSS
WRN FL. THE OUTLOOK LINES CONFORM TO THE WEST EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH CNTRL FL. MARGINAL SEVERE THREATS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH SEE TEXT AREAS. WHILE THE THREAT IN THE
CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE THREAT IN FL IS
EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 03/21/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010/
AS EXPECTED AN INTENSE/COLD UPPER LOW DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ARKLATEX REGION. VORTEX WILL NOW MOVE EWD ACROSS
NRN MS/NRN AL BY 12Z MON AS THE VERY STRONG MID/UPR JET S OF LOW
OVER NRN GOM ROTATES NEWD ACROSS SERN STATES TONIGHT.
...FL...
INSTABILITY REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING PARAMETER WITH REGARDS TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY RETURNING NEWD ACROSS SERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
SRN FL...THE WINDOW OF SEVERE OPPORTUNITY WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION IS ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. WITH DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY RISING THRU THE 60S SRN HALF OF
PENINSULA THIS AM COUPLED WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...FAST
MOVING...SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY/BRIEF
DAMAGING WINDS AND MAINLY SMALL HAIL. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
OF SHORT LIVED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES
GIVEN THE OBSERVED STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES. THE EXPANDING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT HEATING AND ALONG WITH
THE CAPE ROBBING WARM NOSE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND MORE
RECENT ACARS IN THE 850-700MB LEVEL...SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS
LIMITED.
...CAROLINAS...
AFTER 00Z THE APPROACHING COLD VORTEX AND MID/UPPER JET MAX WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING S/SELY SFC-850MB FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING MOISTURE INCREASE. DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F WILL SPREAD INLAND COASTAL CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF EXPECTED STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.
WITH THE APPROACHING 80-90KT MID LEVEL JET AND STRONG VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AN UPGRADE IN THE RISK
CATEGORY MAY BE WARRANTED. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MARGINAL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...MLCAPES LESS THAN 400 J/KG...WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
THE SEVERE THREAT TO BRIEF WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAPIDLY
MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
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