SWODY1
SPC AC 161926
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2010
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGE TO 1630Z FORECAST. STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN REGARDS TO PRODUCING LIGHTNING. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE.
..DARROW.. 03/16/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT TUE MAR 16 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
WV IMAGERY INDICATED A COLD CORE LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST. THIS LOW
AND ATTENDANT TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TRACK ACROSS NW ORE AND WA OVERNIGHT. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF E OF THE ROCKIES. AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE DROPPING SE ACROSS
TX WILL MOVING OFFSHORE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.
...NW ORE/WA COAST...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF PUSHES ONSHORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LARGE UPWARD OMEGA ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFLUENT JET MAX MOVING ONSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE COAST.
...PARTS OF SE TX AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAINS...
A DRY SLOT INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY WAS LOCATED OVER S CNTRL TX THIS
MORNING AND MOVING EWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SEWD. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF MID LEVEL COOLING AS
UPPER TROF/DRY SLOT APPROACHES RESULTING IN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
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