SWODY1
SPC AC 250547
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH...LWR MS VLY AND TN VLY...
...MID-SOUTH/LWR MS VLY TO THE TN RVR VLY...
THE UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS OK IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND
EJECT ENE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTN. AN EXTENSIVE AND
SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED WARM CONVEYOR WILL BE DRIVING A LARGE BATCH OF
CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE
TN VLY. WHILE SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE
MORNING...PRIMARY SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE UPSTREAM DURING THE AFTN.
IN WAKE OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY...RECYCLED MOISTURE AND NWD
TRANSPORT OF A MODIFIED GULF ENVIRONMENT WILL ESTABLISH A CORRIDOR
OF MID-50S TO LWR-60S DEW POINTS FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE LWR MS
VLY. ALTHOUGH STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE LOW WILL
SPREAD ATOP THIS MOISTURE...QUESTIONS REMAIN ON MAGNITUDE OF AFTN
HEATING ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRIMARY WARM CONVEYOR. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG MAY MATERIALIZE WITH
SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTN OVER ERN AR INVOF A
CDFNT/DRYLINE...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ESE INTO NRN/ERN MS AND
NE TOWARD WRN/MIDDLE TN BY MID-LATE AFTN. LOW/MID-LVL FLOW WILL
HAVE VEERED CONSIDERABLY BY AFTN...BUT SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/LINES LATER IN THE AFTN AS IT MOVES
INTO AL. THE SEVERE RISK WILL DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT AND TIME.
...CNTRL/NRN FL...
TSTMS EMBEDDED ALONG THE TAIL-END OF THE SUBTROPICAL WARM CONVEYOR
WILL THRIVE ACROSS THE NRN/ERN GULF BASIN WHERE HIGHER-QUALITY
THETA-E WILL EXIST THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT. VEERING WSW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO CNTRL/NRN FL BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY OFFSET APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION. AS SUCH...TSTMS WILL PROBABLY TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE OFF THE ERN GULF LOOP CURRENT TOWARD THE PENINSULA DURING
THE NIGHT...THOUGH AN ISOLD SVR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
INCREASING SHEAR.
..RACY/ROGERS.. 03/25/2010
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