SWODY1
SPC AC 070045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST SAT MAR 06 2010
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CALIFORNIA INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...
A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TURN EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE HAS
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU...BUT WEAK
DESTABILIZATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO A TONGUE OF HIGHER
MOISTURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND STRONGER HEATING/MODEST MOISTENING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL
COLD CORE/MAIN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL NOT
REACH NORTHERN BAJA/EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT. THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
BUT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...PERHAPS THE COASTAL RANGES AND COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.
...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
RELATIVELY STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW APPEAR LIKELY TO BE STABILIZED
SHORTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL COOLING...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY DIMINISHING...AND THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH 02-03Z.
..KERR.. 03/07/2010
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