SWODY1
SPC AC 071939
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST SUN MAR 07 2010
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN NM INTO WRN/SWRN TX...
LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING TODAY ACROSS THE
TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SWRN TX WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 70S. WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED SOME WITH THE DEEPENING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS PROCESS MAY BE OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY
THE FLUX OF A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS RETURNING NWWD THROUGH THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AS SUCH...EXPECT AIR MASS TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPE OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. HOWEVER...FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE
COMPLEX TERRAIN OF SWRN TX MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED
STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL INTO THIS
EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE EXPECTATION THAT TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS
VALID. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS AND GUSTY WINDS.
..MEAD.. 03/07/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST SUN MAR 07 2010/
UPR LOW HAS TURNED EWD AND IS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN CA/BAJA CA
BORDER THIS AM. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WELL DEFINED ON BOTH
COMPOSITE RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SPREADING E/NEWD ACROSS
SWRN AZ/NWRN SONORA.
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE LEE OF SRN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPR LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUED TO SPREAD INCREASING
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT THRU WRN TX/ERN
NM.
LITTLE INHERENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN GIVEN THE VERY MODIFIED SOURCE REGION...THUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LINKED TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
SUPPORT AND MID LEVEL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH.
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH MUCAPE NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG...PRIMARILY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FAVORABLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7C/KM SUPPORT HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ONCE
STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WITH 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STORMS COULD TEMPORARILY ROTATE ENHANCING BOTH HAIL AND GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL.
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