SWODY1
SPC AC 131615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2010
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
TWO PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE CONUS THIS PERIOD -- A
BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE
CAROLINAS...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ESEWD
FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE LATTER WAVE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MARGINAL LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE LIMITED
BY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW AOB 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREA OF
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
...NC/VA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER WRN TN AS OF MID MORNING WILL CONTINUE
EWD TO CAROLINAS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...DAYTIME HEATING...AND COOLING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES /NEAR -24 C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NC/SRN VA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON IN NC AS AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX PIVOTS NEWD
FROM GA...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD TO SRN VA THIS
EVENING. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME IN PROXIMITY
TO THE MID LEVEL LOW...THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH HAIL NEAR THE 1 INCH
CRITERION.
..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/13/2010
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