Tuesday, March 16, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161554
SWODY1
SPC AC 161552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT TUE MAR 16 2010

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

WV IMAGERY INDICATED A COLD CORE LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST. THIS LOW
AND ATTENDANT TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TRACK ACROSS NW ORE AND WA OVERNIGHT. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF E OF THE ROCKIES. AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE DROPPING SE ACROSS
TX WILL MOVING OFFSHORE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.

...NW ORE/WA COAST...

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF PUSHES ONSHORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LARGE UPWARD OMEGA ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFLUENT JET MAX MOVING ONSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE COAST.

...PARTS OF SE TX AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAINS...

A DRY SLOT INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY WAS LOCATED OVER S CNTRL TX THIS
MORNING AND MOVING EWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SEWD. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF MID LEVEL COOLING AS
UPPER TROF/DRY SLOT APPROACHES RESULTING IN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

..STOPPKOTTE/THOMPSON.. 03/16/2010

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