SWODY1
SPC AC 191924
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO THE 20Z OUTLOOK.
..BROYLES.. 03/19/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010/
...SRN OK NWRN TX...
IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING OF COLD UPPER TROUGH FROM ROCKIES INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS THRU TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT NOW CENTRAL
KS TO TX PANHANDLE PUSHES SEWD INTO SERN OK TO TX BIG BEND.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL THRU
THE FORECAST PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO SUCH A MEAGER RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR. DEWPOINTS ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
ARE ABOUT THE BEST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED SRN PLAINS PRIOR TO FROPA.
HOWEVER A TYPICAL EARLY SPRINGTIME EML IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS AND COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A
REMOVAL OF MUCH OF THE CINH BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX. THE COOL AIR
ALOFT AND MUCAPES RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 500 J/KG SUPPORTS
HAIL IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. PRIOR TO SUNSET A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME BRIEFLY STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
BRIEF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.
OVERNIGHT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A PREDOMINANTLY NON SEVERE
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT AS THEY PUSH SEWD ACROSS SRN OK INTO
CENTRAL TX.
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