SWODY1
SPC AC 220059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN GA/CAROLINAS...
DEEP CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MS...WILL TRACK ENEWD INTO
NERN AL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MONDAY. EXIT REGION OF ACCOMPANYING
90-100 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD FROM NRN/CENTRAL
GA TO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN OCCLUDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN AR WITH A BOUNDARY
ARCING NEWD INTO WRN KY AND THEN SEWD TO A SECONDARY LOW OVER SERN
TN. A COLD FRONT THEN TRAILED SEWD THROUGH GA TO NERN FL. THE TN
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NNEWD INTO ERN KY WHILE THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES NEWD THROUGH SC AND MUCH OF NC OVERNIGHT. AT
00Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A NARROW LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
/ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY/ EMBEDDED WITHIN A SLIGHTLY BROADER AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT FROM WRN KY INTO ERN TN
AND NRN/ERN GA. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER NRN
GA...COINCIDENT WITH SEWD EXTENSION OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FROM THE TN VALLEY AND NWWD EXTENSION OF NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/THETA-E ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 100-300 J/KG/ CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.
40-50 KT SSELY LLJ WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WAA WITH THIS JET SHOULD MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ACROSS AIR MASS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CAROLINAS INTO VA AND LIKELY LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED STORMS WITH FROPA. MODELS SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
GREATEST WITH NARROW MOISTURE/THETA-E CORRIDOR MOVING NEWD WITH THE
FRONT. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG/...
INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST A LOW END
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR BRIEF
TORNADO/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
...FL...
SRN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH
CENTRAL TO SW FL...WILL PUSH SWD AND OFFSHORE S FL TONIGHT. 00Z MFL
SOUNDING INDICATED MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
35-40 KT REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
AND AS SUCH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW PRIOR TO THE FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
..PETERS.. 03/22/2010
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