Saturday, March 6, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061253
SWODY1
SPC AC 061251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA CST SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD
TODAY...BEFORE TURNING E TO THE SAN DIEGO AREA EARLY SUN. AT THE
SAME TIME...NEB UPR LOW...LYING BETWEEN BELTS OF STRONGER WLY FLOW
TO ITS N AND S...LIKELY WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY E TO CNTRL IA.

IN WAKE OF HI AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EAST...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST AT
LWR LVLS OVER MOST OF THE NATION. HOWEVER...CURRENT SATELLITE/ GPS
PW DATA...AND PERSISTENCE OF LEE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HI PLNS
...SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLNS...WITH PW
EXPECTED TO BE AOA 1 INCH AS FAR N AS THE RED RVR IN NW TX BY 12Z
SUN.

...MID MO VLY...
NARROW ZONE OF SFC HEATING IN DRY SLOT OF WEAKENING NEB UPR LOW WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN. ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SBCAPE
AOB 250 J/KG AND LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

...SRN GRT BASIN...
ISOLD MAINLY DIURNAL TSTMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SRN GRT BASIN
TODAY...IN AREA OF INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE AND COOLING ON NERN
FRINGE OF OFFSHORE LOW. INITIATION LIKELY WILL BE TIED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO SRN NV. VERY ISOLD ACTIVITY ALSO
MAY FORM OVER THE CA/NV SIERRA AND...PERHAPS...OVER THE SHASTAS/
SISKIYOUS. HOWEVER...WARM CONVEYOR BELT CLOUD COVER/ WEAK SFC
HEATING WILL LIMIT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THESE REGIONS.

...SRN HI PLNS...
MOISTURE RETURN AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL WAA MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD ELEVATED STORMS EARLY SUN
OVER PARTS OF NW TX.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 03/06/2010

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