Wednesday, March 10, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101629
SWODY1
SPC AC 101627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SCENTRAL CONUS/MID AND LWR MS VALLEY......

...SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITATION ON UPGRADING TO
A GREATER RISK FOR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NOW TX PANHANDLE
TRACKS NEWD ACROSS OK TO VICINITY MKC BY 12Z THU.

STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX OF 80-90KT ACCOMPANIES UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN
OK INTO SRN MO/NRN AR THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAKS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE SHEAR AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE LOWER MS VALLEY THRU THE PERIOD ENHANCING SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN THIS AREA.

COMPLEX RAPIDLY EVOLVING SEVERE SCENARIO AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
QUICKLY RETURNS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NCENTRAL
TX. STEEP/COOL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

...ERN SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY INCLUDING MO OZARKS...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE INTO SRN MO PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER VORT/WIND MAX TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
NOW N OF SPS DEEPENING NEWD ACROSS OK DURING AFTERNOON...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ERN OK AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAVE INCREASED THE WIND
POTENTIAL INTO SRN MO/NRN AR AREA. AN UPGRADE MAY BE JUSTIFIED THE
SAME AREA IN AFTERNOON UPDATE IF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN RETURN
MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

ADDITIONALLY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE. WITH THE COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG
LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL ALONG WITH A TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

...LWR MS VALLEY...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LOWER
MS VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CENTRAL TX. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...7-8C/KM...OVERSPREADING THE AREA...CONDITIONS ARE NOW
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION QUICKLY WEAKENS.

WITH 30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THRU THE
DAY...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
WITH THE BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ACROSS
NRN GULF DISCRETE STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY ALONG WITH TORNADO
POTENTIAL. GIVEN MLCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND THE STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LARGE HAIL ALSO LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG
UPDRAFT...PARTICULARLY SUPERCELLS.

TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE TONIGHT CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.
HERE...INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A VORT MAX
MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 03/10/2010

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