SWODY1
SPC AC 230050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT MON MAR 22 2010
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN OH/NRN WV/SRN PA...NRN MD AND ADJOINING PANHANDLES MD/WV...
CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION OF ERN
TN/WRN NC/SWRN VA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG THE
NERN/NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...ATTENDANT TO CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW... WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND 7-7.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITHIN THE GENERAL TSTM
OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH...OVERALL CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS
SUBSTANTIALLY.
MEANWHILE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS /HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS/ IS EXPECTED
TO WANE THIS EVENING /BY 02-03Z/ WITH FURTHER DIABATIC COOLING
RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY/INCREASE IN SBCINH. GREATEST
POTENTIAL...THOUGH ALSO VERY LOW...FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR
STRONG WIND GUST IN THE SHORT TERM WOULD BE WITH THE ONGOING STORMS
ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ADJOINING PANHANDLES OF
WV/MD INTO SWRN PA. IN THAT REGION... REMAINING WEAK INSTABILITY
/500 J/KG/ AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THIS ISOLATED THREAT.
..PETERS.. 03/23/2010
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