SWODY1
SPC AC 282000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN MAR 28 2010
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN
VA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...
...GA/FAR EASTERN TN/CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VA...
RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK...WITH STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS
STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN GA TO THE UPSTATE CAROLINAS. REFERENCE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 220/TORNADO WATCH 37 AND SUBSEQUENT SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
...FL PENINSULA...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AS OF 20Z...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS COMPLEX. THIS SAME TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHERE A RELATIVELY MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK. ALTHOUGH A WARM LAYER
WAS NOTED AROUND 700-750 MB...SPECIAL 18Z MIAMI OBSERVED RAOB
SAMPLED A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AROUND 1200 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 125 MS/S2. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...THIS IMPLIES SOME
SUPERCELLUAR/SUSTAINED STORM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MCS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL/SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..GUYER.. 03/28/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT SUN MAR 28 2010/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXES ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. ONE SYSTEM IS NOW
OVER KY/TN AND WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. ANOTHER
VORT LOBE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO AL...AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AND FINALLY A THIRD
SOUTHERN-STREAM FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA. EACH OF THESE WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF STRONG
STORMS LATER TODAY.
...GA/CAROLINAS/SCNTRL VA...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM EASTERN AL INTO THE CAROLINAS ARE
SLOWLY TRANSPORTING 50S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD AND HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PROGRESSIVELY MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO
PROVIDE POCKETS OF AFTERNOON MUCAPE OF UP TO 750 J/KG. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER EASTERN GA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD IN VICINITY OF REMNANT WEDGE FRONT INTO SC/NC. THIS
ZONE WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS
AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK AS
TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S.
...FL PENINSULA...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE WEST COAST OF
FL THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD ANVIL CIRRUS FROM STORMS WILL GREATLY HAMPER DAYTIME
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S AND STRONG DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG UPDRAFTS FOR SOME RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL LATER TODAY.
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