SWODY1
SPC AC 051254
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE ALONG THE BC
CST. WITHIN THIS REGIME...EXPECT ELONGATED LOW NOW OFF THE ORE CST
TO CONTINUE SSEWD...WHILE COMPACT LOW OVER NW CO MOVES SLOWLY ENE
INTO WRN NEB.
AT THE SFC...LEE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE SHOULD
EDGE E/NE INTO FAR WRN KS/SW NEB BY EARLY EVE. PERSISTENT POLAR
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MS VLY WILL LIMIT LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE WRN PLNS...ALTHOUGH CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THAT PW SHOULD EXCEED
.50 IN OVER NW KS/SW NEB THIS AFTN/EVE.
...CNTRL HI PLNS...
A BAND OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PRECEDE CO UPR LOW AS THAT
SYSTEM CONTINUES ENEWD TODAY. THIS BAND OF ASCENT SHOULD REACH FAR
NE CO/SW NEB AND NW KS BY MID TO LATE AFTN. ASSOCIATED MID LVL
COOLING/MOISTENING AND MODEST LWR LVL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW EXISTING SHALLOW CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO A
BAND OF TSTMS...OR FOR NEW CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DEEPEN INTO STORMS
ON W EDGE OF LOW LVL MOIST AXIS,
BY LATE IN THE DAY...STEEP BOUNDARY LYR LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST OVER
THE REGION BENEATH A FAIRLY DEEP /800 TO 400 MB/ LAYER OF
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROUGH. THIS MAY YIELD
SBCAPE OF 250 TO PERHAPS 500 J/KG AS SFC DEW POINTS REACH THE LWR
40S F. COUPLED WITH MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY CLOUD-LYR
FLOW...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY SFC WINDS.
LIMITED MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND NARROW NATURE OF LOW LVL MOIST AXIS
SUGGEST THAT ANY ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT WILL BE ISOLD/SHORT-LIVED.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 03/05/2010
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