SWODY2
SPC AC 060536
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NRN BAJA/SRN CA
COAST EARLY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD...WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT NEWD
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY 08/12Z. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX...WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NM TOWARD THE TX HIGH PLAINS BY
SUNRISE. FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF ERN NM/TX SOUTH
PLAINS WHERE MID 40S SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD MUCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE...HOWEVER STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND COOLING/STEEPING LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST NEAR-SFC BASED UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH EXPECTED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...FAVOR AN UPWARD EVOLVING LINE OF CONVECTION BY SUNRISE
ACROSS ERN NM. THE GREATEST RISK WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS WITH ACTIVITY NEAR THE WIND SHIFT.
..DARROW.. 03/06/2010
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