Wednesday, March 17, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170450
SWODY2
SPC AC 170449

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SECOND IN A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES...WITHIN BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING NOW BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTWARD QUADRANT OF THE NATION...WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY/
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL
REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE SREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 55F WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. GIVEN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...AND THE RATHER DRY AIR NOW PRESENT ACROSS MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE...EVEN AS A 30-50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS A LEE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LINGER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BUT COOLING ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ARE PROGGED TO YIELD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MAXIMUM CAPE IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG...AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 03/17/2010

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