SWODY2
SPC AC 161647
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT TUE MAR 16 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE RATHER HOSTILE FOR MEANINGFUL DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. WITH LARGE SCALE
OFFSHORE FLOW NOTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND MEAGER MOISTURE
INLAND...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LIGHTNING IS QUITE LOW OVER MOST AREAS.
...CA/GREAT BASIN...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
AFTER 18/00Z. PRIOR TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE...INTERIOR HEATING ACROSS
NRN CA INTO NV WILL GREATLY CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE BY PEAK HEATING WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUOYANCY
SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE GIVEN THE HEATING/CONVERGENCE FOR SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME LIGHTNING.
...TX...
VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF ERN TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...GREATER THAN 9 C/KM...ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN
ASCENT REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED PARCELS WILL
BECOME UNINHIBITED BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 22-24C...HOWEVER
WEAK CONVERGENCE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE INDICATE ANY LIGHTNING
WILL BE QUITE SPARSE AND SHORT-LIVED.
..DARROW.. 03/16/2010
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