SWODY2
SPC AC 081714
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CST MON MAR 08 2010
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT UPR LOW OVER NM TODAY WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AS AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS FROM CA INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL MIGRATE
NEWD FROM SCNTRL KS INTO CNTRL IA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPR/MID-MS RVR VLY DURING THE DAY. TRAILING PORTION OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS/TX WILL STALL AS PRESSURES FALL UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY IMPULSE.
...LWR MO RVR VLY...
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE
MID-MO RVR VLY. IN WAKE OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY...A NARROW MID-LVL
DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD COINCIDENT WITH A
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED AXIS OF 50S SFC DEW POINTS FROM WRN MO INTO NERN
KS THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MODEST SFC HEATING BENEATH STEEPENING
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES /MINUS 22 DEG C AT H5/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG.
ISOLD SFC-BASED AND LOW-TOPPED TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG BOTH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE OCCLUDED FRONT BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS ERN KS AND THEN EXPAND NEWD AND SWD INTO WRN/NRN MO
DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A COUPLE
OF STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...IF SUFFICIENT 0-3KM CAPE
MATERIALIZES...PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY
INVOF THE VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE MAY FOSTER A BRIEF TORNADO.
ATTM...TIMING OF THE DRY SLOT AND ORIENTATION OF THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND LATER OUTLOOKS
CAN ADDRESS INCREASED SVR POTENTIAL/POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK.
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AS IT MOVES ENE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
...MID-SOUTH/LWR MS RVR VLY...
WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE DECELERATING CDFNT AND BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION WITH SFC DEW
POINTS LIKELY RECOVERING INTO THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S BY TUESDAY
AFTN. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...ASCENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK AS
PRIMARY POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES N OF THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT...AT LEAST
WEAK CONFLUENCE INVOF THE FRONT AND A MODESTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTN/EVE...WDLY SCTD TSTMS FROM PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH INTO LA. PRESENCE OF 45-55 KT WSW MID-LVL FLOW AND
30-35 KTS OF 1 KM FLOW MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLULAR STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO OR
MARGINAL SVR HAIL.
THE UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER/HEATING AND
COVERAGE OF SFC-BASED STORMS PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK
ATTM.
..RACY.. 03/08/2010
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