SWODY2
SPC AC 051648
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT MIDLEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN ON DAY TWO WHILE PROGRESSING ESEWD THROUGH THE MID MO INTO
MID MS VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER
THE FAR ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...
IMPACTING CA...PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN...THE SWRN DESERTS AND NRN
BAJA.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL CONUS
UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM VICINITY OF CNTRL NEB INTO ERN IA
WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
MID MO VALLEY.
...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY...
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL SERVE
TO MAINTAIN SPORADIC TSTM ACTIVITY INVOF SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DAY
TWO PERIOD. ANY INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED TO THE N OF
WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT AND ROOTED WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MUCAPE OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. DIURNAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA SWD INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO. HERE
TOO...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS FORECAST.
...SWRN U.S...
A BROADLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
WEAKER MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND PRIMARY UPPER SYSTEM
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE ZONE OF ASCENT OVER REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND EPISODIC SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..MEAD.. 03/05/2010
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