SWODY3
SPC AC 190730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SERN STATES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER
THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS WHILE TRAILING FRONT ADVANCES EWD
THROUGH THE SERN U.S. AND INTO THE FL PENINSULA.
...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA THROUGH FL...
BAND OF FORCED CONVECTION WILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY SUNDAY FROM THE
CNTRL PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES INTO THE CNTRL GULF. THE
OCCLUSION PROCESS WILL LIMIT NWD EXTENT OF THE RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH ONLY MID-UPPER 50F DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INLAND.
THE MOIST AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO
THE MID 60F ACROSS SRN FL AND NEAR 60F ACROSS N FL BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAINING NW OF THE RICHER
MOIST AXIS...INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...AND SOME
THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.
...CNTRL AND ERN NC...
AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60F WILL ADVECT INLAND FROM THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE ERN
CAROLINAS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS EWD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES AND A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY. THOUGH A
LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO ERN NC...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
MARGINAL.
..DIAL.. 03/19/2010
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