Tuesday, March 2, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0155

ACUS11 KWNS 021348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021348
FLZ000-021545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021348Z - 021545Z

STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY/ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL MOVE ACROSS S FL
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE ERN
GULF WATERS W OF NAPLES AND FORT MYERS AS OF 1330Z. DOWNSTREAM
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS BEEN VEERING IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
SUB-SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. AS
A RESULT...TRAJECTORIES OFF THE ERN GULF LOOP CURRENT WERE ADVECTING
LWR-MID 60S DEW POINTS INTO SRN FL WITH STRONGEST BUOYANCY ALONG THE
SWRN FL COAST.

12Z TBW RAOB/VWP SAMPLED 40-50 KT WSW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND THIS FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...REDUCING THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. BUT...AS THE SFC
CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN AHEAD OF THE STORMS...IT IS REASONABLE
TO EXPECT THAT ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE DMGG
WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SWRN COAST/KEYS. THE LINE OF
STORMS WILL REACH THE SERN COAST/UPR KEYS IN THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME...LIKELY CLEARING ALL OF SRN FL BY MID-AFTN.

..RACY.. 03/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 26337981 24998053 24608135 24508197 24698361 26548220
27018022 26337981

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