SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060141
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD AND FAR SERN ND
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 060141Z - 060615Z
FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES UP TO 0.02-0.05 IN/HR IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE PROBABLE ACROSS ERN SD AND FAR SERN ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ICE PELLETS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
CORES THAT MAY DEVELOP AND TRANSLATE NWD ACROSS MAINLY SD.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH RECENT WV IMAGERY INDICATE AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE...WITH A S/W TROUGH
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO FAR WRN KS. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS S/W WILL ROTATE N-NEWD ACROSS NEB DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WILL FOCUS STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER SD.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 01Z SHOWS BANDED ECHO STRUCTURES ARE
FORMING ACROSS ERN SD SWD INTO NEB...WITH PRECIPITATION RATES
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE DURING THE
NIGHT AND DEEP LAYER OF SATURATION DEVELOPS.
IN ADDITION...E-SELY SURFACE WINDS EMANATING FROM SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAKE MI WILL AID IN MAINTAINING INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...RESULTING IN SURFACE WET BULB COOLING AS
PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TOWARD OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. MEANWHILE...RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NOSE
OF A 40+ KT 850 MB JET WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE ERN HALF OF SD
BY 04-06Z...FOCUSING LOW LEVEL WAA OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA AS WELL
AS 4-6 DEG C WARM NOSE...RESULTING IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO FORECAST
TO STEEPEN DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING NWD
THROUGH NEB. DECREASING STABILITY COMBINED WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS
AT 700 MB WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST ELEVATED MUCAPE
VALUES. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY FORM AS A RESULT...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER MAINLY SD...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION/FREEZING RAINFALL RATES AS WELL AS INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS.
..GARNER.. 03/06/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 45999652 44309644 43229692 43069837 43190014 44420068
45930017 46589893 46609746 45999652
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