SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222253
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-230130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT MON MAR 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OH...NRN VA...SRN/WRN PA...NWRN MD
INCLUDING PANHANDLE...BOTH PANHANDLES OF WV.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222253Z - 230130Z
SVR HAIL THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THEN
DIMINISH WITH TIME...ACCOMPANYING TSTMS OVER EXTREME NRN WV AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OH. MEANWHILE BRIEF WINDOW OF SVR HAIL THREAT MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER SE ACROSS ADJOINING PANHANDLES OF WV/MD AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF SRN PA. LIMITED COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION/DURATION OF SVR
POTENTIAL PRECLUDES WW.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE NEAR HLG...WITH WARM FRONT ARCHING
NWWD ACROSS ERN OH NEAR PHD...THEN NEWD NEAR YNG-FKL LINE. MOVEMENT
OF CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT SHOULD NEGATE ONE ANOTHER ENOUGH THAT NET
WARM FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL BE NWWD DRIFT AT MOST...AND BULK OF FRONT
SHOULD GO QUASISTATIONARY. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS NERN WV
AND W-CENTRAL VA...MOVING NEWD ABOUT 10 KT. DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
ARE AUGMENTING ANTECEDENT POSTFRONTAL DRYING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VA
AND PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NWRN WV...ACTING AS NEWD-SHIFTING WRN BOUND
OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION. HIGHEST SFC DEW POINTS
ARE ANALYZED ACROSS NERN VA...MD AND SRN PA...WITH THERMAL MAXIMA IN
MORE WELL-MIXED AIR MASS NEAR SFC CYCLONE. SOME OVERLAP REMAINS
BETWEEN THERMAL AND MOISTURE FIELDS IN NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SERN OH
ESEWD ACROSS SWRN PA TO MD/WV BORDER REGION ALONG POTOMAC RIVER.
RELATIVELY LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE IS OFFSET ENOUGH BY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER CYCLONE...TO YIELD
MLCAPE 300-500 J/KG IN AREAS UNPERTURBED BY CONVECTION. SIMILAR
BUOYANCY IS EVIDENT SEWD TOWARD NRN MD AWAY FROM HIGHER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...BUT INTO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
VERTICAL SHEAR STRENGTHENS WITH SEWD EXTENT ACROSS SERN PA...WRN MD
AND NRN VA BENEATH PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING
ORGANIZATION OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF INCREASING SBCINH WILL COUNTERBALANCE
CORRIDOR OF WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE INVOF COLD FRONT...IN TURN
LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MEANWHILE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF TSTMS
OVER ERN OH AND NRN PANHANDLE OF WV SHOULD BE NEAR PEAK...WITH AIR
MASS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE THROUGH REMAINDER LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
FROM COMBINATION OF SPREADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND DIABATIC SFC
COOLING.
..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 39037815 39267877 39697956 39998054 40118109 40428150
40858142 41218087 41358034 41157874 40747763 40047686
39427683 38997770 39037815
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