SWODY1
SPC AC 020237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT THU APR 01 2010
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AMENDED SLIGHT RISK FOR KS/NEB
EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK ACROSS KS AND INTO SOUTHERN NEB COINCIDENT WITH
ISSUANCE OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 41.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL
INHIBITION...UPWARDS OF 600 J/KG AT OUN...ABOVE MARGINALLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERMAL PROFILES WILL...HOWEVER...ADJUST LATE
TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES RESULTING IN MORE THAN
ADEQUATE MODIFICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST THINKING
IS DEEP CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN TX
BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS/DEVELOPS NEWD INTO CNTRL OK/SRN KS ALONG
I-35 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. OVERALL...EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING
SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES AS SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
OVERSPREAD SLOWLY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS TX/OK/KS.
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
...FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN...
DEEP CONVECTION WILL UNDOUBTEDLY DEVELOP ALONG SW-NE AXIS FROM THE
NEB PANHANDLE...NEWD INTO NRN MN. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING
MOSTLY ALONG COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...00Z SOUNDINGS...AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY HAIL THAT DEVELOPS WITHIN
STRONGER STORMS MAY REMAIN ISOLATED AND MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE.
..DARROW.. 04/02/2010
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