SWODY1
SPC AC 160518
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT FRI APR 16 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY...
...OH VALLEY AREA...
UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN ONTARIO HAS CRESTED UPPER RIDGE AND WILL DROP
SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FRIDAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SEWD...AND BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THIS BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SERN ONTARIO SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
AND SRN PLAINS.
A NARROW MOIST AXIS WITH LOW 50S DEWPOINTS FROM SERN WI SWWD INTO IA
WILL ADVECT EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ALONG A 30-40 KT WLY LOW LEVEL
JET. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY SOUTH OF PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP WHICH
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO
AOB 500 J/KG WHICH COULD SERVE AS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. DEEP LAYER FLOW
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES SEWD.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY PROMOTE A
THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
..DIAL/SMITH.. 04/16/2010
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