SWODY1
SPC AC 291228
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT THU APR 29 2010
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO
SOUTHERN MN...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED OVER EASTERN
WY...AND WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS EVENT...BUT FULL
SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HELP TO PRODUCE A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK CAP AND MODERATE CAPE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN IA.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INITIAL CONVECTION WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BECOME INTENSE DUE TO WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS IT OVERTAKES THE SURFACE TRIPLE-POINT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST NEB AND WESTERN IA THROUGH THE
EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS...ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SOON AFTER DARK.
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF TRIPLE POINT INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS IS MUCH
LESS CERTAIN. HOWEVER...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL KS AROUND DARK. THE
CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS QUITE HIGH WITH ANY STORM THAT
FORMS IN THIS AREA...INCLUDING THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND
TORNADOES.
..HART/SMITH.. 04/29/2010
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