SWODY1
SPC AC 161943
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2010
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FROM SRN INDIANA TO PA...
..SRN INDIANA ENEWD TO PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CONVECTIVE FORECAST WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO MOVE THE NRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK...SEVERE WIND
PROBABILITIES AND GENERAL TSTM LINES SWD TO REFLECT THE S/SEWD
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT.
.PETERS.. 04/16/2010
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT FRI APR 16 2010/
..SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SRN
STREAM TROUGH MOVES ESEWD FROM SRN CA TO NRN MEXICO...AND A WEAK
DOWNSTREAM LOW DRIFTS EWD OVER NW TX. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER NRN
STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO OH/PA/NY BY
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL FOCUS THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..SRN INDIANA ENEWD TO PA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND SURFACE ANALYSES REVEAL A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S/ SPREADING ENEWD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STEEP THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 F. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND
INVERTED-V PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THICKER CLOUD BAND FROM W/NW PA INTO
CENTRAL OH. STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD EWD INTO PA AND DEVELOP WSWWD
IN A BROKEN BAND TO SRN INDIANA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING MIDLEVEL FLOW
/NEAR 50 KT AT 700 MB/ AND ASSOCIATED MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL IN
THE ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE SEVERE STORM
THREAT WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.
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