SWODY1
SPC AC 120055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN APR 11 2010
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TX BIG BEND SEWD ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY INTO DEEP S TX...
...TX BIG BEND SEWD TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF DEEP S TX...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN NERN MEXICO...ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH
HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE. WITH TIME...MODELS EXPAND THE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH PERSISTENT SELY LOW-LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED/WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIKELY SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE
INCREASE.
WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY ON THE U.S. SIDE OF THE RIVER...LOW-LEVEL
SELYS BENEATH MID-LEVEL WLYS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL THAT A CLUSTER OF
STORMS COULD CROSS THE RIVER THIS EVENING...AND SHIFT ESEWD WITH
TIME EVENTUALLY REACHING DEEP S TX. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
RISK OVERNIGHT...FOR CONDITIONAL HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.
...TX PANHANDLE REGION INTO WRN OK...
LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOPS REVEAL A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR TO HOUR...CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS OBSERVED CAPPING E OF THE ONGOING STORMS. AS
CAP STRENGTHENS WITH TIME THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CONTINUED DECREASE
IN STORM INTENSITY. IN THE MEAN TIME...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.
..GOSS.. 04/12/2010
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