SWODY2
SPC AC 030545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SAT APR 03 2010
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SRN STATES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THE PRIMARY BELT OF WSW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM
THE SWRN STATES INTO THE GRTLKS REGION. WITHIN THIS JET...THE
COMPLEX MID-LVL DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING THE WRN STATES WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. UPSTREAM...A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE N PAC BASIN WILL AMPLIFY
AND RESULT IN A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES.
AT THE SFC...A WEAK FRONT TIED TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
SEWD...REACHING THE CNTRL GRTLKS TO A LEE LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLNS
BY SUNDAY AFTN. WRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD SUNDAY
NIGHT TOWARD THE MID/LWR MO RVR VLY.
...CNTRL PLNS TO THE MID-MS VLY...
HEALTHY SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSPORTED NWD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LEAD WAVE TRACKS INTO THE
GRTLKS REGION BY SUNDAY EVE. RISING LARGE-SCALE HEIGHTS IN WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURGING MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY
PROVE UNFAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DAYTIME TSTMS OVER THE PLNS.
BUT...MID-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND CINH NOT
OVERLY STRONG. THUS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION INVOF THE STALLING
FRONT/TRIPLE POINT DURING PEAK HEATING CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM NWRN
OK NEWD INTO THE MID-MS VLY. ANY STORM THAT CAN MANAGE TO FORM
WOULD BE EMBEDDED ALONG SRN FRINGE OF 50-60 KTS OF WSW MID-LVL FLOW
AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HOWEVER...IS FOR BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS
TO FORM AFTER DARK IN AN ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG/N OF
THE RETREATING FRONT FROM PARTS OF KS NEWD INTO MO. THE MAGNITUDE
OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AND WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN A
SUBSTANTIAL NOCTURNAL SVR HAIL THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT.
ATTM...GIVEN THE OVERALL VERY UNCERTAIN FCST...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
BROAD LOW-SVR PROBABILITY.
..RACY.. 04/03/2010
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