SWODY2
SPC AC 161727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST MODEL DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. AS INDICATED IN THE INITIAL DAY
2 OUTLOOK. SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE WRN
INTO CENTRAL STATES...WHILE A DEEP UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE
NERN STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WITHIN THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE NE LOW. A COLD
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN STATES UPPER LOW...WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY AND PROCEED THROUGH THE SERN U.S. AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/LOWER MS VALLEY THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
...S TX...
A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE WARM CORE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WEST TX TODAY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX DURING DAY
2. A WEAK TROUGH TRAILING SWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO CENTRAL TX. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...SOME SURFACE
HEATING AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5-7 C/KM/ SHOULD RESULT
IN MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN SRN STREAM WILL TRACK EWD THROUGH S TX
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
WEAK WINDS WITHIN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE THREAT.
..PETERS.. 04/16/2010
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