SWODY2
SPC AC 111718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SUN APR 11 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IS AN
INTENSE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
WHICH WILL ASSUME A NEGATIVE-TILT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEWD
PROGRESSION OF A JET STREAK FROM SRN CA INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LEE
CYCLONE FORMATION AND SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OVER WY...ALONG THE WRN
EXTENSION OF A FRONTOGENETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
...NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL SERVE TO HASTEN THE POLEWARD
TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS RISING
THROUGH THE 50S MONDAY S OF FRONT. THE MAINTENANCE OF AN EML ATOP
THIS MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL: 1) ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG OVER
CNTRL/ERN SD...AND 2) LIKELY CAP WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.
DESPITE THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO THE W OF DEVELOPING WARM
SECTOR THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AS SUCH...STORM
INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY MONDAY EVENING N OF SURFACE FRONT
OVER PARTS OF ND AS WAA INCREASES WITHIN EXIT REGION OF DEVELOPING
50+KT NOCTURNAL LLJ. WHILE SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORM FORMATION INVOF BOUNDARY OVER NRN SD...THE
MAINTENANCE OF A CAP AROUND 750 MB /PER SREF ETA-KF CONTROL MEMBER
SOUNDINGS/ SUGGESTS THIS WOULD BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...THE STRONGEST ELEVATED STORMS FORMING TO
THE N OF SURFACE FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORE STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...AND
QUESTIONS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO THE N
OF SURFACE FRONT...FIVE PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THIS UPDATE TO THE INITIAL DAY TWO OUTLOOK.
..MEAD.. 04/11/2010
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