SWODY2
SPC AC 191724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT MON APR 19 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE CA COAST TUESDAY
WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE ROCKIES. ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS...WITHIN NWLY FLOW...IT APPEARS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY DIG SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INDUCING A WEAK
SFC LOW OVER ECNTRL CO. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL AID STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF CO/SWRN KS...SWD ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER SUCH THAT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 9 C/KM. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD SFC PARCELS
SHOULD REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
NEAR THE SFC LOW AS IT DRIFTS SEWD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
WELL MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ON THE HIGHER PLAINS. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NERN CO/NWRN KS JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY ATOP COOLER AIRMASS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUT STRONGLY SHEARED THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DECIDEDLY ELY. EVEN THOUGH
SFC-BASED DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL...MAINLY MID-UPPER 40S...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO/WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT A
SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION AS LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
..DARROW.. 04/19/2010
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